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2018 pharmaceutical industry pre-judgment: it will be a good year

Time: 2018-02-20

The policy is good, the medicine is good; the competitive choice of the market competition system is not the investment, nor the policy; the huge achievements of the medical reform can not be erased anyway, the biggest achievement of the 22-year medical reform is to protect two Poor people: farmers and residents, to solve problems slowly; the endogenous driving force of China's pharmaceutical market is strong, no one can catch up, but the biggest problem is that the uncertainty of the external environment is likely to have a certain impact; the goal is to seek "Inside the reform, building the environment", if it can be done, there will be no problem in economic development in the next three years, and medicine will be no problem; two major events must be adhered to: First, unswervingly follow the path of internationalization, with emphasis on Chemical preparations; second, unswervingly take the road of innovation drive, focusing on biopharmaceuticals.

On January 20th, the "2018 China Pharmaceutical Industry New Year Outlook Meeting" jointly sponsored by the China Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, Nanjing Jiangbei New District Management Committee, E-Pharma Managers Magazine and China Healthcare Industry Investment 50-person Forum was held in Nanjing. . Nearly 200 top leaders, more than 10 scientists and more than 500 investors attended the conference. The total number of participants reached 1,000.

Yu Mingde, the director of the Expert Committee of the China Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, and the former president, announced the keynote speech on the situation of the pharmaceutical industry and the new policy. The following contents were sorted out according to the contents of the speech.

The eight words of sustainability, stability, health and speed can be used to summarize the development of China's pharmaceutical industry over the past 40 years, but the situation is different every year and every year. In 2007, it was designated as the research year by various ministries and commissions. It is intended to minimize the writing of policies that are not in line with reality, strengthen investigation and research, and make decision-making more scientific. This is a very interesting history.

The policy is good and the medicine is good. We have been through such long-term, sustained and healthy growth in the past years. First, we have benefited from the reform and opening up of the country. Secondly, we benefited from the construction of the market economic system and finally benefited from medical reform.

This year marks the 40th anniversary of reform and opening up. The Third Plenary Session of the 11th Central Committee focused on the construction of the economic system. Since then, a number of elite enterprises have been born. How did the elite come out? It is the competitive competition of the market competition system, rather than the investment and policy. Secondly, the great achievements of the medical reform can not be erased anyway. The biggest achievements of the 22-year medical reform have guaranteed two poor people: farmers and residents. The problems that exist are still coming slowly, and you can't worry. From 2009 to 2015, the national total investment in health has increased by 20.4% per year, which is a huge number. This growth has brought prosperity to the industry, as this part of increased investment has expanded the capacity of the pharmaceutical market, which is derived from government input.

In 2017, the pharmaceutical industry was in good condition. The main business income reached 11.9% growth at the end of November, achieving a total profit growth of 17.12%. The main business income profit rate increased by 11.15% and the export reached 10.60%. The growth of the first two items is not unexpected, and may be a little less than we expected. The increase in total profit exceeded our expectations, but the average profit of listed companies was not so high, only 13% to 14%. What is very encouraging to us is that the export delivery value has a huge turning point, rising to 10.68%. If the export is not good, the country will be crowded. If the domestic crowd is too hard, the turning point of the export will come, which may indicate that next year will be better. This has alleviated the pressure of a lot of excess capacity, but the transformation and upgrading of the industry will continue.

I expect to be a good year in 2018, no matter what the wind blows. The development of the entire pharmaceutical industry in 2018 is definitely a very encouraging situation, because until now, the figures for the pharmaceutical industry in the third and fourth quarters have been rising, and the increase is beyond our original expectations. Pharmaceutical sales, profits, and exports in 2018 are expected to continue to grow at double-digit rates.

What has changed is that the pressure on medical insurance control fees should be relatively reduced. Since this year, this pressure has gradually increased, and public opinion pressure is also very large, so it is necessary to strictly control fees, control the proportion of drugs and auxiliary drugs. It now appears that the basis of this request has been shaken. Because the insurance revenues in 2012, 2013, and 2014 were not supported, the situation changed in 2015 and 2016. In addition, tax cuts will also be the focus of attention in 2018.

Summarizing the current characteristics, I believe that the endogenous market has strong driving force, and no one can catch up with the consumption power and potential of China's 1.4 billion people, but one of the biggest problems is that the uncertainty of the external environment is likely to have some impact. Therefore, we propose to "inside the reform, the external environment." If these eight words can be achieved, the economic development in the next few years will be no problem, and the pharmaceutical industry will be no problem.

Unleash economic vitality and reduce institutional success. The introduction of unreasonable management policies has led to many problems and policies, which have provided reasons for the introduction of more regulatory policies. The more unreasonable regulatory policies, the more problems will arise, so the ineffective policies continue to reduce operational efficiency. And increase costs. A very important aspect of institutional costs is the reduction of documents that are not scientific. The general direction of the documents is correct, but some measures are blunt, unscientific, and sometimes even brutal.

On October 8th, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and the General Office of the State Council issued the "Opinions on Deepening the Reform of the Examination and Approval System to Encourage the Innovation of Pharmaceutical Medical Devices," which is an epoch-making and milestone document. Thanks to the promotion of this document, the pharmaceutical industry will be a new look and a big step. Because this is a document of change of mind, its main purpose is not to focus on me, but to be in line with the most advanced international quality level. This is the change of thought. It can be said that the reform of drug supervision is great, there are many bright spots, and there are major breakthroughs.

In addition, there are two major events. First, we will unswervingly follow the path of internationalization, with a focus on chemical preparations. Second, we must unswervingly follow the path of innovation and drive the focus on biology.

If the enterprise can seize the main line of transformation and upgrading, the quality improvement and efficiency will not expand, the relevant departments will seize the main line of reform, research, report less, and issue the text in line with the actual situation. The pharmaceutical industry will be more sustainable, stable, healthy and fast. development of.

Guo Yunpei, president of China Pharmaceutical Enterprise Management Association, said in his opening speech that in 2017, China's pharmaceutical industry achieved good results under the support and promotion of deepening medical reform. In this year, the pharmaceutical industry's main income has achieved double-digit year-on-year growth, and 163 domestic and foreign declared pharmaceutical products have received the CFDA-issued document number, while many years of drug registration applications have been from the end of 2012, 8863 The number has dropped to less than 4,000, and it is expected to be reviewed on a time-limited basis in 2018.

During the year, 13 varieties passed the consistency evaluation in the first batch, and drug sales achieved zero completion in public hospitals. The “two-vote system” was fully implemented in the reform pilot provinces and reform pilot cities. The proportion of medicines in public hospitals in 200 pilot cities has fallen to around 30%. At the same time, in the year from January to November, China's pharmaceutical industry has completed fixed assets investment of more than 546.68 billion yuan. In addition, listed companies with market capitalization of over 100 billion have grown from two in the past to seven now. What is particularly gratifying is that the supply-side reform of the pharmaceutical industry has started, and pharmaceutical companies with innovative strength and endogenous power have already begun to take shape. The Chinese pharmaceutical industry has begun to shift from high-speed development to high-quality.